Approaches to the Goal List: Part One

Over the next few weeks I will make a series of posts analysing the results of the matches I have traded using the Goal List so far and expanding on the ways in which you can use the Goal List selections to make a long term profit. For the purposes of this post I just want to introduce a couple of methods which might give you some food for thought on how you might like to use the Goal List picks. They can be broadly divided into two categories: Pre match and in play.

Pre Match:

Straight betting singles:

After some initial testing of the early selections I was particularly interested in the over/under markets. The most interesting thing for me is the difference in percentage of games which have gone over 2.5 to those that have gone over 3.5.

As it stands, 93/151 (61.5%) of matches have seen over 2.5 goals, whereas 64/151 (42.3%) have seen over 3.5 goals.

Most of the matches are expected to have 'some' goals and consequently the over 2.5 price can be as low as 1.50 (usually between 1.55 and 1.80). This is of little interest as far as making a profit is concerned.

Of more interest are the over 3.5 and over 4.5 goals markets. In fact the average price of over 3.5 goals on the 151 goal list selections to date is (circa) 2.70. Clearly an attractive price when you can hit it 42.3% of the time.

From the data I have gathered so far, backing over 3.5 goals in each of the 151 matches (6 weeks) so far would have yielded 20.5 pts profit. Backing over 4.5 goals would have returned an even more impressive 41pts profit.

In Play:

Trust that goals will arrive:

As most readers will be aware, you can get some great value in play as long as you know what you are expecting from a particular football match. In the case of the Goal List we are (obviously) expecting goals. We can take advantage of the in play markets and make huge gains. With a bit of extra research we will be laughing all the way to the bank!

The best way to explain this is by using a recent example:

West Ham v Southampton (4-1) - 20th October 2012

Expected to be a tight match of course and a quick bit of pre match research told us that 80% of Southampton's goals this season have come in the second half. The game was 0-0 at half time but we are now loaded with 3 important bits of information.

1. It qualified as a goal list selection (therefore we are expecting plenty of goals)
2. Southampton score 80% of their goals in second half
3. Crucially, we now have the in play stats from the first half, shots on target, chances, corners etc etc.

Decision? lay all the unders you can! - Personally I went for u2.5 and u3.5 goals at very short prices so a huge upside (desirable in trading).

Sure enough the first goal came in the 46th minute, the second on 48 mins and the third in the 63rd minute. From then on we had plenty of options. All of which ended in a very nice profit.

Of course not all games pan out as perfectly as this one but there are plenty of opportunities to be found in play.