The Oldest Strategy in the Book, reworked.

As mentioned before on this blog I am firmly with the majority that believe laying the draw before a match and hoping to trade out after a goal is futile in today's markets. But that doesn't mean we can't capitalize on more pronounced movements in the draw price during the match.

The Goal List spreadsheet is becoming a Bible to me, and not just because of it's length! I often peruse the results and filter out different scenarios to create new ideas and strategies.

Since the Goal List began one of the most striking statistics is the number of first half goals which have been scored in the selected matches. With 78.6% of matches featuring at least one first half goal, it makes sense to always consider laying the draw in the Half Time market and trading out after a single goal, or indeed letting it run until HT and picking up a full profit. This is a staple in my trading 'diet'.

For now though, I am more interested in those matches which don't have a first half goal. I've mentioned  before the opportunities to lay under 2.5 and 3.5, but that just doesn't suit every game. So what about laying the draw at Half Time and trading out after a goal in the second half?

In most Goal List matches (drawing at HT) the draw price is available to lay between 2.70 and 2.90. At these prices you can set a stop loss at circa 1.40-1.50 to ensure your max loss is only your initial stake. This gives you roughly until the 80th minute to find a second half goal.

Of course the amount of profit available after a goal depends on both the time it is scored and the strength of the team who has scored it. But of course there are plenty of ways to play it. If the underdog scores first, you can leave all your profit on the draw in expectation of an leveller.. etc etc..

Let's look at the statistics from the Goal List database:

In total 54 matches have been 0-0 at HT and therefore qualified for this particular trade.
Of those 54 matches, 40 have seen a goal arrive before 80 minutes.

What if the match is 1-1 at HT?

In total 20 matches have been 1-1 at HT
Of those 20 matches, four have ended 1-1
Of the 16 matches with at least one more goal, that goal came before 74th minute in all 16 games.

I am not claiming to have reinvented the wheel here and I know many (including myself) have been laying the draw at HT for a long time. I also appreciate the (still) reasonably small sample size, but nonetheless this is an encouraging start. In my opinion this is a very viable approach to the Goal List selections, especially for the novice trader.

It can be made even safer by having a small amount on the 0-0/1-1 in the correct score market as well to cover you for some of the inevitable losing trades along the way.

Anyway, I'm not here to tell you what to do. I think the beauty of the Goal List is that you can discover for yourselves.

By the way, did anyone happen to notice that 10 of the 24 Goal List matches (with in play markets) this weekend featured a goal in the first 10 minutes of the match? I wonder how that effects the rest of the game? ;-)

Late Goals at Goodison

Some cracking results for the Goal List this weekend. We had a 4-2, a 3-2, a 4-1, three 2-2’s and three 3-1’s amongst others. Yet again there were plenty of opportunities in play and the purpose of this post is simply to highlight the Everton/Spurs game.

Everton v Tottenham (2-1)

This match which was 0-0 at Half Time and the more attentive followers might have seen me discussing this match with @iFootballTIPS on twitter, for those that didn’t our brief chat can be seen below.

As you can see, Ronnie (@iFootballTIPS) certainly knows his stuff and between us we pretty much cracked this game. As it goes my correct score trade mentioned in the picture ended in only a small profit. I was able to remove all my liability by laying 0-0 right down to 2.70 whilst staying within my strict loss limit. Unfortunately the goals came just too late to trade out of the 2-2 or 3-1 I had dutched for a nice profit. Hey ho. What's more important to me is that we called it right. I haven’t spoken to Ronnie since the game but I’ve no doubts he traded his plan and came away with a nice healthy green. Check out his blog!

Of course some people will say that the late flurry of goals was a random occurrence and I had a lucky escape in this trade. The fact is a football match is 90 minutes long, and it only takes a second to score a goal. For me there were three very clear pointers towards late goal(s) in this match.

1. It was 0-0 after 70 minutes and I know that 97.3% of Goal List selections have featured at least one goal. 
2. My pre game research and the knowledge of trends involving both teams this season clearly showed goals were more likely to come in the second half
3. Further knowledge of Everton’s tendency to score late goals coupled with AVB’s curious approach to substitutions late in games when his Tottenham side have been leading this season. If all the matches finished on 80 minutes this season Spurs would be top of the Premier League.

Taking the above three points into account I was very confident in the outcome of this match, although it must be said I certainly didn’t anticipate the goals coming quite as late as the 90^th and 92^nd minute!

There was one other fixture which deserves a special mention, E. Frankfurt v W. Bremen (4-1).

This Goal List match was also 0-0 at Half Time meaning under 2.5 and 3.5 were most certainly available to lay at basement prices and judging by the messages I received on twitter plenty of people did just that. Goals came on 47’, 54’, 62’, 63’ and 90’. Job done.

There are no selections this week, Tuesday-Thursday but I am aiming to write at least one more post over the coming days highlighting some key trends in the Goal List results which you will definitely find useful. So be sure to keep an eye out.